Toronto Maple Leafs Boston Bruins Game 7 Betting Preview Intelligent Hockey

To be successful in the NHL playoffs, sometimes a team just has to survive. For the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, a loss in Game 7 would be absolutely devastating: a team with a strong regular-season performance suffering an epic collapse, or a team that overcame a big series deficit failing.

For the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers, the first round was less a fight for survival and more a busy week of work. Tiresome, yes. But also fleeting. The Rangers won four straight games and the Hurricanes won five. Both have had time to rest, which is beneficial ahead of what is expected to be a grueling, hard-fought series.

From a betting perspective, we get an idea of ​​what to expect and who we can bet on. I would be happy to provide my findings.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
Saturday, May 4th – 8:00 p.m. ET

This was a bad week for the Bruins. Although the Maple Leafs were missing superstar Auston Matthews, Boston missed a chance to tie the series in Game 5 despite a great performance from goaltender Jeremy Swayman. The Bruins failed to keep up with the Maple Leafs' advance and frequently dropped the puck.

Most worryingly, Toronto had wised up and brought in goaltender Joseph Woll to replace the shaky Ilya Samsonov. Wool was excellent. In Game 5, when the Bruins made a third-period push and created seven dangerous chances at 5-on-5, Woll's play forced overtime. The loss in Game 5 wasn't the end of the world, as long as Boston took care of business in Game 6 to avoid a repeat of last year's nightmarish first-round implosion. Oops.

The Bruins have expressed their desire to get the puck under the goal line and coach the Maple Leafs' defensive group. This season, much of Boston's offense has been controlled from below the goal line by spreading teams out, playing from the bottom up, or hitting the F3 in the high position. But the body does not always agree with the mind.

In Game 6, the Bruins' forecheck was virtually absent. Perhaps the Bruins' best taste came in the final moments of the game when Trent Frederic found the puck in the slot after Morgan Geekie and Brad Marchand had effectively flooded the wall. The excitement was short-lived as Frederic failed to score and moments later Toronto's William Nylander scored his second goal of the game.

The strange thing about the Bruins' Game 6 strategy was the lack of cohesion on the forecheck. The support was too fragmented and the Bruins defenders were too passive. Part of the problem for Boston was losing board battles, but often it was due to the F2 and F3 failing to put pressure on the puck. Toronto left its zone far too easily.

Still, the Maple Leafs deserve recognition. Like NHL Network's Mike Kelly on You, crazy people check and don't give the Bruins room to make plays on the breakout and in the neutral zone.

Additionally, the Maple Leafs overwhelm the Bruins in the dirty areas. It's striking how often the Bruins get into the game cleanly, but get caught up in a one-and-done or lose the puck entirely. The Maple Leafs were quicker and better with the puck. And in Woll they have a goalkeeper who can compete with Swayman.

The Bruins finished Thursday's game with 16 high-danger chances and better-than-expected goals, and there were moments when they took the ice and found success. The Bruins used long passes and misdirections to get through the neutral zone. Boston tried to force the puck up the ice with flip passes and stretch passes, but also faked the long pass to its forwards at the far blue line to pave the way for a player underneath, without much protest from them Mid zone to scurry. Upon entry, the Bruins' first wave effectively disrupted the defense and pushed them back to create time and space for the puck carrier. While this didn't result in any goals, it does provide a roadmap for how Boston could get into the offensive zone with numbers and potentially keep the ball in Game 7.

But the Bruins probably won't win on the rush alone. That means it will be crucial for Boston to use its defensemen as playmakers to pull the puck toward center ice and shoot into traffic in hopes of a tip and rebound. In Game 6, the Maple Leafs were busy boxing out, keeping the low slot clean, but using the mobility of their defenders to create offensive shots from the point, which was an obvious way for the Bostons to explore inside and penetrate.

With Matthews likely out for Game 7, I don't think there will be much change to Toronto's schedule. The cycle and forecheck worked, and when Nylander and Mitch Marner are at their best, these two can shut down their opponent one-on-one and throw a puck into traffic or pass in the slot. While the Maple Leafs' 5-on-5 success during the regular season was based on their ability to grab slots, without Matthews the focus is less on high-risk plays and more on puck support.

Can the Bruins lose a 3-1 series lead two seasons in a row? Watching Boston play two bad games in a row makes me wonder if it can avert a cruel fate and pull out a win in Game 7. If Woll plays this well, even a much-improved Bruins team may not be able to score points against a stingy Maple Leafs squad.

Regardless, considering that access to the slot has all but evaporated and the play behind the net is excellent, I expect one or both goalies to allow a goal or less and am happy to snag the under.

Selection: Under 5.5 Total Goals -120

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers
Sunday, May 5 – 4:00 p.m. ET

The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy. You should be proud. But I expect them to lose Sunday's game and this series because the Hurricanes are a very bad game for New York.

Sometimes hockey can be simple: spending time away from your goal is a recipe for success. During the regular season, the Hurricanes were least in the 99th percentile in their defensive zone; They readily use stretch passes, flip passes and a one-touch-and-out breakout to speed the puck's path out of the zone.

Even when opponents have time in the offensive zone, the manufacturing offense is a burden for Carolina. The Hurricanes have been elite at defending cycle chances and slot passes allowed this season, and against the Islanders in the first round, the Hurricanes recorded a significant difference. Carolina finished the game with 30 (!) more cycle chances and 13 more slot shots.

One thing we saw in the Islanders series was that Carolina's rush complemented their feared forward well. That spells trouble for the Rangers, who were one of the worst NHL teams in rush defense during the regular season. There's a lot of emphasis on the Rangers' 1-3-1, but if the Hurricanes can beat the Forecheckers on the ice, they'll find room to hit the trailer. The Rangers' difficulty managing their coverage in transition is likely to be exacerbated against the Hurricanes.

Could the Rangers' special teams decide this series? Possibly, but not likely. New York has an excellent power play that helped them win against the Washington Capitals. But Carolina has a great penalty kill, overlaying the slot to prevent the cross-seam pass. Additionally, it will be aggressive in entries and in attempting to recover pucks. Carolina also has an excellent power play unit that utilizes rotation and movement. So I don't see special teams as an advantage in either case. During the regular season, both teams' power play and penalty kill were the top three in the league.

The same applies to the goalkeeper. During the regular season, Igor Shesterkin had a slightly better Goals Save Above Expected (GSAx) than Frederik Andersen and that continued into the playoffs. But while Shesterkin is capable of improving his game and being the far superior goaltender, the edge New York enjoys looks modest when the growing sample size is taken into account.

The top of the Rangers lineup can keep this series close. The Vincent Trocheck line in particular has been a strength all season. What's more likely is that the Hurricanes will put the Rangers in trouble as New York's extended defensive zone time causes coverage to short-circuit.

The Rangers can give free rein to defensemen on the weak side, and I fully expect the Hurricanes to take advantage of that as they move the puck through the offensive zone. Carolina can move its players like chess pieces, with the high F3 players, net front players and defenders working together to create a slot opportunity. I don't know if Carolina will win it all this year, but I believe they will make it to the conference finals.

Picks: Hurricanes Game 1 Moneyline -115 and Hurricanes to win the series -162